Tuesday marked the end of the NCAA's spring transfer portal for men's and women's basketball, a chaotic month that saw thousands of players cut ties with their former program in search of money, playing time, future draft position, and, well, money. But like musical chairs, there aren't enough seats for everyone.
A study titled
Portal Pushdown: The Trend No One Talks About, was issued earlier this month by Timark Partners. While the current transfer portal data isn't included, 2025 is expected to continue a pattern that has rocked college basketball since 2019, when the transfer rules were liberalized. Its main contention: most transfers do worse, not better, under this system.
"Approximately 65% of all the Division I basketball-playing student-athletes who entered the transfer portal, regardless of the competition level their career began at, either transferred down a level or did not find a new home," writes Mark LaBarbera, former athletic director at Valparaiso.
The study tracked 14,000 college athletes from 2019 through 2024. Excerpts include the following:
"At the highest competition level in this study (Tier 1), the Power 4 conferences and the Big East, 70% of student athletes who entered the portal transferred down or did not find a new home. At the lowest competition level in this study (Tier 3), which was the majority of DI programs, 61% of student athletes who entered the portal transferred down or did not find a new home. For those
student athletes, the only down transfer destinations are programs outside of Division I."
"The most common outcome for Tier 1 student-athletes who entered the portal and remained in Tier 1 was intra-conference destinations. Further, the majority of these portal entrants still transferred to a lower-ranked team."
"If athletic programs don't adapt to the reality of the portal, they'll become revolving doors with
little or no sense of team or continuity," writes LaBarbera. "It's better to welcome student athletes, address their needs, and provide them with a positive environment...rather than a revolving door where coaches endlessly watch students come and go."
Georgetown University is not specifically mentioned in the report, but a study of its transfer activity confirms many of these points.
A review of transfers in the Big East era (1979-present) identifies 88 outbound transfers from Georgetown. (For purposes of the study, Curtis Williams and Jayden Epps are not included as they have not identified a transfer destination.) Among the 88, the destinations were as follows:
33.0% (29 of 88) transferred to a school in a major conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC).
18.2% (16) transferred to a school in a mid-major conference (A-10, American, C-USA, Missouri Valley, Mountain West).
36.4% (32) transferred to a school in a lower ranked Division I conference (examples include America East, MEAC, Patriot, and SWAC).
6.8% (6) transferred to a Division II or Division III program.
5.7% (5) transferred to a junior college.
Seven of the 88 transferred to a new school and never played there.
It's easier to say, perhaps, that this is the sign of the times rather than explore solutions. Other Georgetown sports also have a transfer portal and their attrition is much lower for a variety of reasons. If a men's basketball player gets a seven figure offer at Michigan, that's a different argument than someone leaving GU because they don't see the opportunity to stay or don't see the value of a Georgetown degree.
By contrast, Marquette has signed no one in the portal because none of its active players are transferring--the only departure is a medical redshirt from 2023-24 that did not see playing time last season.
"[Shaka Smart] has never, not once, said he won't bring in a transfer. He has, however, made it clear he won't get into bidding wars, and any player that does come in will do so with an understanding that the financial terms are not negotiable," writes the
Paint Touches blog following MU basketball. "Marquette has done very well (and frankly gotten a bit lucky) to bring in players that bought into the system, and didn't leave at the first chance for a huge payday."
The Timark Partners study does not measure another important metric: how many transfers nationwide are graduating at their second, third, fourth, or in some cases, fifth school. It calls to mind John Thompson's time-tested adage: "When you no longer have basketball, be sure you have a degree."
Outbound Georgetown forward Curtis Williams has transferred to Tulane, per social media posts.
Williams averaged 4.7 points in 33 games this season, with a season high of 15 versus Connecticut. He is the third Georgetown player in the past four years to have settled at Tulane, including Collin Holloway in 2022 and Rowan Brumbaugh in 2024. Brumbaugh led the Green Wave in scoring last season with a 15.5 ppg average.
Also joining the Green Wave: Seton Hall transfer Scotty Middleton.